The Death of a Swing State

I had originally written this shortly after the 2010 census results were published.  I find it particularly relevant because it talks about the Florida Path.  The fact major political consultants are talking about an idea I wrote about a year ago feels validating.

I have included maps at the bottom to illustrate my point. The 2010 census resulted in six votes being shifted in Republican favor.  I was curious as if this would mean more presidents that are Republican for the foreseeable future.  Paradoxically, it will be increasingly difficult for the GOP to win presidential bids for the next twelve years.  This is because Ohio has shifted from a key swing state to simply a swing state while Florida is now a super swing state.  Without Florida, the 33 most conservative states must vote for the GOP nominee.  Democrats only need to win the 17 most liberal states, DC and Florida to clench any nomination (1).  This is not to say the Democrats do not have their own vital state.  Without PA, the chance of a Democratic win without Florida seems excessively dim.  You do not achieve the same battleground status where the other swing states become important unless Florida goes to the GOP and PA to the Democrats (Or the unlikely reverse).  If this happens then NV, NM, CO, IA, OH, VA, and NH must be fought over tooth and nail(2).  I personally cannot see any plausible situation where Missouri would vote for a candidate more liberal than Florida, thus it is not included in the list of swing states.  The opposite for Minnesota.  Even though there are now more Republican safe votes, Florida and PA must go to the Republicans while only one of those two states must go to Democrats.  Therefore, the change for the next 12 years is that, Florida and Pennsylvania have now superseded the role of swing states and are now our two critical states.  Without a realignment of parties, winning Republican white houses now appear to be a herculean task.



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